The wearable device market, such as motion trackers, notification devices, smart watches and head-mounted displays, took off in 2013. Market growth momentum is expected to increase shipments this year to 48 million units and reach 91 million units in 2015. However, according to the NPD DisplaySearch wearable device market and forecast report, the market growth momentum has slowed down since 2015 due to the slight decline in consumer craze for new applications.
Paul Gray, director of European market research at NPD DisplaySearch, said: "We predict that the wearable device market will look like DVDs, LCD TVs, smart phones and other digital consumer products, along with large-scale Samsung, LG and more. Cost-effective manufacturers enter, which in turn lowers the price and profit of the wearable market."
NPD DisplaySearch's forecasting assumptions (shipping unit: 10 million units)
Because wearable devices are highly uncertain in consumer use and development, NPD DisplaySearch offers three hypotheses for the future of this market: "Forward into the Past", "Incidental to EssenTIal" and "Persuasive and Pervasive". Under these three assumptions, the market will have a relatively weak development period and then resume strong growth momentum.
In the first hypothetical situation, the rich will use the wearable device first, and then as the price drops, the market will spread to the average consumer. However, as the fashion trend gradually recedes, it may shrink rapidly before the market has expanded. However, the popularity of the price will prompt the market to recover again.
Under this assumption, China's huge domestic demand market and the re-evolution of smart phones will dominate the development of the follow-up market. In 2017, wearable devices became synonymous with fashion, and the North American and European markets will shrink less than China. Gray added: "The Chinese market will be rapidly warming up after 2017, and the wearable device market will be swept through white-label and local suppliers with low-cost strategies."
In the second hypothetical situation, the practical use of wearable devices will become an important motivation for casual use purchases. For example, Apple's iTunes, because of the copyright restrictions of devices and services, consumers become loyal customers. Under this circumstance, China once again dominated the market due to the huge domestic demand market and the re-evolution of smart phones; however, under this premise, in 2016, fashion only brought out a short-lived demand, and then it was dull.
The same situation also occurs in North America and Europe, but brand factories can use the bundle's sales strategy to slow down sales. In the next market, China is expected to grow rapidly due to strong support from white and local suppliers. However, the powerful effect of the brand still affects the entire global market, especially in North America, which has developed a large number of loyal customers. Gray added: "The short-term contraction of the market in 2016 will help a few brands strengthen their position through rapid integration."
The development of the third hypothetical situation is more positive, mainly because the advantages of wearable devices for health care are very obvious. In particular, body sensing functions become part of the daily life of consumers, and health care is gradually being valued by the public, providing a safe and clear and even indispensable living environment every day. Medical institutions also recommend wearable devices to their patients.
In the long run, when China once again dominates this market, it will only slow down its growth. In this case, the impact of fashion will be very small, because the main growth momentum of the market comes from the application of health care. The market's sales peak will be in 2016 but will not drop immediately.
The North American market, which first adopted wearable devices, became popular through social networks. In 2017, the Chinese market will also strengthen its market share due to the low price support of local suppliers; Gray added: "For the Chinese market that is eager to live a healthy life or the European market that focuses on health care, it will guide medical institutions to recommend The action tracker device gives their patients."
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