How will the new energy vehicles bottom out after subsidies?

The “New Energy Market Insights Survey Report 2017” recently released by a company shows that in 2017, Chinese consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicles has further increased, and nearly 30% (27%) of consumers with a purchase intention will consider pure electric vehicles. , 25% of people will choose plug-in hybrid vehicles.

“The consumption of new energy vehicles in China has been affected by the empty window period of government subsidies at the beginning of this year after the growth of the blowout, and sales have experienced a short break, but then gradually bottomed out.” An agency China's auto industry Zhang Zhenhua, vice president, said that this is the process of new energy vehicles in the development of policy-oriented to market-oriented process, the inevitable pain will experience.

The “New Energy Market Insights Survey Report 2017” recently released by a company shows that in 2017, Chinese consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicles has further increased, and nearly 30% (27%) of consumers with a purchase intention will consider pure electric vehicles. , 25% of people will choose plug-in hybrid vehicles.

What about subsidy retreat?

Technological innovation reduces costs, and the point trading system is more market-oriented

Based on policy promotion, the new energy automobile market in recent years can be described as hot. But for new energy car companies, opportunities and pressures coexist. Battery technology is in urgent need of breakthroughs, and the rapid replacement of products, and the entry of new competitors into the game have all aggravated the competition. At the same time, subsidy retreat has also put pressure on the promotion of new energy vehicles.

Under the condition that the policy guidance remains unchanged, subsidy withdrawal will inevitably become a foregone conclusion. The agency has in-depth interviews with new energy experts from some car companies. They said that the reduction in the amount of subsidies does indeed put a lot of pressure on companies. However, companies will not sit still, technology innovation can effectively reduce costs, extend the industrial chain and provide value-added services, but also an effective way for car companies to increase profits.

Recently, referring to alternatives after subsidies for new energy vehicles, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei said that he is studying alternative policies after the 2020 government subsidies are all withdrawn. “At present, opinions are being sought on the Internet. A trading system for fuel consumption points and new energy points for traditional vehicles is being established. The relevant documents are being formulated as a measure after the 2020 subsidy policy is abolished.” Miao Wei said.

The so-called new energy points trading system, that is, the government records the company's annual sales of "zero emissions" models into points, based on the points to assess whether the company's energy-saving emission reduction compliance. If the company's points are not up to the standard, you can purchase points from other companies in the same industry, or pay a high fine to the government.

Industry experts believe that the new energy points trading system is more flexible than real financial subsidies, which is conducive to promoting the development of new energy vehicles through market measures.

How many kilometers of battery life is worse?

Consumers demand higher battery life

The study found that consumers have greater requirements on the battery life of electric vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles.

In 2016, the actual value of the battery life of the electric vehicle and the owner’s expectations were 164 km and 256 km, respectively. In 2017, the actual value of battery life for electric vehicles increased to 252 kilometers, but the expectations of consumers also increased to 374 kilometers. This shows that the battery life of electric vehicles at this stage is far below the expectations of consumers, and efforts to improve the technology still need to be made.

The agency also found that if the expectations of existing new energy owners are divided according to high-end owners and middle-end owners, the expectations of high-end owners are significantly higher than that of mid-end owners. Taking pure electric vehicles as an example, the average cruising range expected by mid-end pure electric vehicle owners is 309 kilometers, while the high-end owners are 462 kilometers.

Not only that, but the expected cruising range (309 km) for mid-range pure electric vehicle owners is close to the actual cruising range of high-end pure electric vehicles (314 km). This also reflects the new energy vehicles in the market, the mid-range to the high-end, high-end to the concept of car breakthrough.

In the aspect of the fuel economy ratio of hybrid vehicles, the survey found that the intended proportion of intended users is about 1/3. In fact, current products on the market can also achieve this level. However, for the owners of existing hybrid vehicles, they expect the fuel saving rate to be closer to 1/2, which is precisely the ideal value for many products to be advertised overseas.

How to arrange the charging pile?

Demand-driven layout development, future exchange potential

In the construction of charging piles, charging operators stated that the layout and development of charging piles are mainly driven by demand. Once the demand arises, the layout of the charging pile will follow it, which means that the development of new energy charging infrastructure will be long-term and benign.

As far as the current layout is concerned, charging operators are vigorously promoting the distribution of DC piles in the public charging system. And nearly 80% of the respondents who are interested in electric vehicles have indicated that their living or working environment supports the installation of private charging posts. This shows that in the future, the exchange piles of private charging piles will have very strong demand potential in the market.

“The new energy vehicle market in the future will inevitably be brilliant in the competition of enterprises, be colorful in the distribution of products, and be constantly changing in technological innovation. This is a good time, and the new industrial chain is rising; this is also a bad one. In the era of being accidentally eliminated by the market, auto companies need to go all out to deal with it,” said Zhang Zhenhua.

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