The central bank raised the deposit reserve by 0.5%, accumulatively increased the reserve to 21.5%, and reached a record high. The central bank wrote "China's Reserves, Reserve Taxes, and Currency Control," saying that China's maximum reserve ratio for realizing reserve tax maximization is about 23%, so there is room for further increases in reserves.
After the release of economic data yesterday, the market expects that inflation in June may be even higher because the PPI domestic producer price index is 6.8%, and the producer price index in May has not been lowered, or drove the CPI in June to continue to be high and high. The CPI, which was announced yesterday, increased by 5.5% in May, so the annual average of the domestic CPI (4%) is even farther. Therefore, after raising the deposit reserve yesterday, we cannot rule out the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates again or frequently using the policy combination.
Yesterday the overall performance of the disk was not weak, and individual varieties appeared to pull up. Shanghai copper's main strength also rose slightly to 0.88%, to close at 67,700 yuan/ton. Technically, in the past eight days, the K-line cylinder formed a small downward triangle pattern. The increase yesterday was very likely to fill the short-term support line of 67000-68000 and the limited area of ​​the downward pressure ramp. The minimum is 67100. , The highest 67700, amplitude 600 yuan / ton. But failed to break through the pressure line of 68000.
In terms of spot, yesterday's Changjiang spot (1# copper) rose 100 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 68500 yuan/ton, and the high price was 68600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 68550 yuan/ton.
Market capital flow, the first 10 positions increased by 1,079 hands to 52,561 hands; short positions decreased by 1174 to 46,266 hands, the day bulls were slightly stronger than the empty side.
According to industry news, Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corp. will resume operation of the Onahama copper smelter, which can produce 20,000 tons of copper per month, accounting for about 15% of Japan's monthly production. The strike at the El Teniente copper mine in Chile eased and the copper production on Monday was 73% of capacity. At present, about 4,000 or 40% of workers have signed personal wage agreements and withdrew from the strike. Union leaders stated that contract workers return to work one after another. After restarting the dialogue on Thursday, more salary negotiations will be arranged on Friday. As a result, support for copper prices weakened.
The reason for the recent market to do more is the "summer electricity shortage" and "copper destocking" expectations, but the summer power shortage is still not yet coming, and the actual profit generated by the "de-stocking of enterprises" has a period of time for the market, The benefits of spot premiums are reflected in the fact that SMEs have not been able to import them at the same time. This has created a good opportunity to absorb high-priced inventory in the previous period, which has created price pressure on the spot market. Therefore, the recent “de-inventory†of the company does not immediately appear to be a practical advantage of the futures market in the short term, although it may form an actual bullish factor in the later period.
Taken together, although the long-term copper price is in line with the global economic recovery demand, copper prices will rise again later in the year. However, short-term Shanghai copper is subject to tightening policy measures triggered by inflation. It is expected that the weak market will continue for some time. It is suggested that Shanghai Copper should be short of rallies and focus on the support of the 65000-66000 region in the later period.
After the release of economic data yesterday, the market expects that inflation in June may be even higher because the PPI domestic producer price index is 6.8%, and the producer price index in May has not been lowered, or drove the CPI in June to continue to be high and high. The CPI, which was announced yesterday, increased by 5.5% in May, so the annual average of the domestic CPI (4%) is even farther. Therefore, after raising the deposit reserve yesterday, we cannot rule out the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates again or frequently using the policy combination.
Yesterday the overall performance of the disk was not weak, and individual varieties appeared to pull up. Shanghai copper's main strength also rose slightly to 0.88%, to close at 67,700 yuan/ton. Technically, in the past eight days, the K-line cylinder formed a small downward triangle pattern. The increase yesterday was very likely to fill the short-term support line of 67000-68000 and the limited area of ​​the downward pressure ramp. The minimum is 67100. , The highest 67700, amplitude 600 yuan / ton. But failed to break through the pressure line of 68000.
In terms of spot, yesterday's Changjiang spot (1# copper) rose 100 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 68500 yuan/ton, and the high price was 68600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 68550 yuan/ton.
Market capital flow, the first 10 positions increased by 1,079 hands to 52,561 hands; short positions decreased by 1174 to 46,266 hands, the day bulls were slightly stronger than the empty side.
According to industry news, Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corp. will resume operation of the Onahama copper smelter, which can produce 20,000 tons of copper per month, accounting for about 15% of Japan's monthly production. The strike at the El Teniente copper mine in Chile eased and the copper production on Monday was 73% of capacity. At present, about 4,000 or 40% of workers have signed personal wage agreements and withdrew from the strike. Union leaders stated that contract workers return to work one after another. After restarting the dialogue on Thursday, more salary negotiations will be arranged on Friday. As a result, support for copper prices weakened.
The reason for the recent market to do more is the "summer electricity shortage" and "copper destocking" expectations, but the summer power shortage is still not yet coming, and the actual profit generated by the "de-stocking of enterprises" has a period of time for the market, The benefits of spot premiums are reflected in the fact that SMEs have not been able to import them at the same time. This has created a good opportunity to absorb high-priced inventory in the previous period, which has created price pressure on the spot market. Therefore, the recent “de-inventory†of the company does not immediately appear to be a practical advantage of the futures market in the short term, although it may form an actual bullish factor in the later period.
Taken together, although the long-term copper price is in line with the global economic recovery demand, copper prices will rise again later in the year. However, short-term Shanghai copper is subject to tightening policy measures triggered by inflation. It is expected that the weak market will continue for some time. It is suggested that Shanghai Copper should be short of rallies and focus on the support of the 65000-66000 region in the later period.
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