Apple's OLED phone has come. Even rumors of Apple's OLED TV have already made experimental prototypes. However, these messages do not support OLED TVs quickly replacing LCD products. The industry expects that OLED TVs in the domestic market will exceed 10,000 units and will wait until 2020. Even so, this is only equivalent to LCD TV's industrial stage in 2006.
The shortage of upstream production capacity requires time to resolve The advantage of OLED display is very clear (although it also has shortcomings), but it is not "everyone can love." Because, the manufacture quantity of OLED display products is far from satisfying the demand.
From the perspective of the semiconductor display industry, Korea’s LGD and Samsung have already invested all their new investments in OLEDs. Including LGD's E6, P10, and Guangzhou's new plant, Samsung's new 6th-generation line, each of which is a huge project. Domestic mainland China manufacturers have stopped investing in liquid crystal projects since 2016 and have focused on OLEDs for 6 generations and below. However, on large-size LCDs, there are several huge projects in domestic mainland manufacturers that have invested again. Domestic Taiwanese manufacturers are mainly investing in the expansion of large-size LCD products. The new investment in the 6th-generation small- and medium-size LCD has also been fully closed in 2016. However, manufacturers in Taiwan Province of China have not yet invested in large-scale OLED projects. The situation of Japanese panel makers is even worse than that of Taiwan Province. Although Japanese companies have some good results in OLED research and development, they have not really scaled up their capacity expansion. Even in the LCD project, the entire Japanese camp is shrinking. It is expected that there will be no new substantial capital injection, and the Japanese panel industry will gradually decline.
In the above OLED production line construction, the total investment in new production capacity that has been started exceeds RMB 350 billion. Samsung, LG and BOE have all planned a multi-billion-level project group and become the industry's big three. However, these investments have not basically achieved mass production. The world's truly mass-produced OLED display products, Samsung's mobile phone screen. Other manufacturers have insufficient production capacity. In 2016, Samsung occupied more than 90% of the OLED global market. In summary, the OLED display industry is currently an industrial structure that provides unipolarity (Samsung-based), diversification of construction, and mouse pull-outs. In other words, the actual available capacity is seriously insufficient, and the market demand is unprecedentedly high. The relevant manufacturers have invested heavily in building new factories. This is a state of the eve of a market eruption.
However, the overall situation of the OLED industry is different from that of the OLED color TV industry. Because the OLED projects of the new global construction are basically 6th-generation and 6th-generation lines, the only manufacturer that really owns OLED large-size lines is the LG.
At present, LG has 8.5 generation line capacity such as E3 factory (8 thousand pieces), E4-1 (26,000 pieces), E4-2 (26,000 pieces). Among them, E4-2 is in the stage of gradual release of production capacity, and full production is required by the end of this year or early next year. LG started the Guangzhou OLED 8.5 generation line in the near future. The project is planned to start production in 2019, with a production capacity of 60,000 glass substrates. At the same time, LG plans to build an E4-3 project in 2018, which will also have a scale of 26,000. In addition, LG’s latest news stated that it plans to build 10.5 generation OLED lines in the P10 plant in the future and adopt advanced printing technology.
LG's large-scale OLED panel's capacity planning is very detailed, and it can be said that it is steadily improving. However, it is still relatively small compared to the global color TV industry. Excluding the P10 factory OLED large-size plan, the total production capacity of LG's project will reach the total size of a line of LCD TVs in 2019. According to the current 8.5-generation OLED line, the cutting ratio of 55-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch products, and 80% of the finished products, will provide stable production capacity of 4 million TV sets by 2020, accounting for approximately 2% of global TV sales. %. In recent years, the global market for OLED products in the domestic market accounted for one-quarter of the total, and domestic sales of one million OLED TVs could exceed 100,000 in 2020.
Therefore, OLED TVs, like small and medium-sized panels such as cell phones, have the problem of supplying single polarization. However, the use of small and medium size panels for OLED mobile phones has shown a trend of full flowering. OLED TV panels are still relying on LG's own support - the latter is similar to Samsung's state of OLEDs on small-size products before 2016.
Extensive bottleneck in expanding the production capacity of OLED TV panels The OLED panel used by color TVs is monopolized by LG. This is a “good opportunity†for LG to expand its production capacity and occupy the market’s first-mover status. In this regard, LG itself will not deny. However, to really increase production capacity, LG still has "not enough strength".
On the one hand, LG must face the trend of the rise of small and medium sized OLEDs. In fact, since 2016, more than 70% of LG's OLED investment has been occupied by the 6th generation line. In 2018, entering the Apple mobile phone supply chain is a direct goal. At the same time, on small and medium sized OLED panels, LG is also faced with the technical challenges of flexibility, and it is not a fully-production-capacity duplication task.
The industry believes that it is the explosive growth of OLED's small size that disrupts LG's strategy of leading the layout of OLEDs in large size. Even for industry giants such as LG, maintaining a high level of investment in small and medium size and large size is also a difficult task. The investment in small size has seriously deteriorated LG's investment plan. The core requirements of the LG Guangzhou OLED project lie in the 30% capital that the state-owned enterprises in Guangzhou can afford, and the huge amount of loans that the Chinese syndicates can provide. Or, the LG Guangzhou OLED project landed was attracted by funds.
On the other hand, LG faced a technical battle over large-size OLED products. LG's well-established swather + color filter film products, although capable of copying production technology at any time, must consider the threat of "lower cost printing technology that can support RGB three primary colors." For the OLED display technology of printing technology, the current state is basically “closedâ€.
If this is successful, then it is clear that the large-scale OLED market steaming process route will become a dead end. Large-scale investment in this route is not a wise choice. However, it may be too late to “keep going out†– so LG still needs to increase its large-scale OLED production capacity at a steady pace.
The above two factors not only plagued LG but also plagued the entire display panel industry. For example, BOE chose OLED to invest mainly in the 6th generation line flexible project. Although it has broken through the large-scale OLED engineering problem of steam distillation technology, it is subject to technical uncertainty and is not willing to mass-produce large-scale steaming technology immediately. Similar concerns include Samsung - Samsung even believes that the display ink of the era of print display is not necessarily OLED, but may be QLED or other products.
The technical difficulty is not terrible, and it gradually breaks through; the financial problem is not terrible. Chinese syndicates and state-owned enterprises will support advanced industries; but the uncertainty of the technological route cannot be circumvented - whether large-size OLEDs are steamed or printed. This problem is not solved. Large-size OLEDs can only be LG's own cautious and steady climbing process, and will not enter the explosive new line construction period.
The mainstream of large-size liquid crystals can be maintained until 2025. Compared with large-scale OLED construction, "large-scale LCD" projects are still deeply loved by the industry. In the color TV industry in the next three to five years, the new panel production capacity is basically 70+ LCD products.
At present, Hefei BOE 10.5 generation line has entered the equipment installation phase, this will be the world's first 10.5 generation line; the same glass substrate size Huaxing Optoelectronics 11 generation line, Hon Hai Guangzhou 10.5 generation line has also started construction; BOE recently signed Wuhan 10.5 generation line framework agreement. At the same time, even if it is the only beneficiary of OLED large-size products, LG does not reject the large-size LCD project. Regarding the 10.10 line of the P10 plant project, LG said that it may first produce liquid crystal projects and then shift to printing OLEDs.
For the above projects, even if the adjusted LG P10 plant is not counted, the total investment of the other four projects is as high as 180 billion yuan. And three projects have started construction. These projects will generate huge capacity, equivalent to 34 million 75-inch TVs, or 44 million 65-inch TVs. In the future, LCD TVs may have one-fifth of the market occupied by these new 10.5 generations of production lines.
Relatively more mature technology, larger scale, and support for more manufacturers, this is the biggest difference between large-size LCD production lines and OLED large-size lines. In 2020, the domestic high-end color TV market is likely to be a comparison of 10 million LCDs over 65 inches and 1 million LCDs over 55 inches. Such a gap is considered sufficient to prove the vitality of LCD products.
Of course, when investing in large-scale liquid crystal products on a large scale, there is always a concern: If OLEDs mature rapidly, especially when large-scale printing technologies mature rapidly, where do these large-scale LCD production capacities go? The answer to this question can be divided into three levels to answer: First, the liquid crystal panel and OLED panel manufacturing have the connectivity of the previous process, that is, more than 70% of equipment and technology are basically the same.
Second, even if OLEDs mature rapidly, it will take several years for their capacity building and scale accumulation (generally, the construction of a new technology line will take 28 months or more). That is, OLED and LCD must have a coexistence phase of 6-10 years. This will provide a transition period for the new LCD production capacity.
Third, if you do not build these LCD projects, what can manufacturers do? One of them is to sit back and let the market of large-size LCDs surrender. The second is to build OLED lines, but currently only the steaming technology route can be mass-produced – and the steaming equipment is more expensive than the liquid crystal mid-range process equipment, and even more than the future of the printing display equipment, that is, if you consider the new line construction Some of the equipment may soon be ruthlessly eliminated, resulting in losses, and now the large size of the steamed OLED lines that can be built is at a higher risk than the larger LCD line.
Taking into account the three levels of consideration, the market believes that the construction of large-size liquid crystal lines is the best solution in terms of market demand, technical route, and return on investment. Most panel companies chose the LCD 10.5 line solution, and it was also a "protection" for LG to develop transpiration OLED alone - reducing the latter's competitive risks.
"Dry and fast LCD, steadily advancing OLED" This is the current upstream market strategy of the color TV industry. This strategy is basically decided by the supply side, and the competition pattern of OLED and LCD products in the next ten years. This is the dominant role of liquid crystals until at least 2025. Although this is not good news for OLED-loving consumers, it is a news that is likely to become a fact.
Smart TV/box information can focus on smart TV information network sofa butler (http://), China's influential TV box and smart TV website, providing information, communication, TV boxes, smart TVs, smart TV software, etc. Answering questions.
The shortage of upstream production capacity requires time to resolve The advantage of OLED display is very clear (although it also has shortcomings), but it is not "everyone can love." Because, the manufacture quantity of OLED display products is far from satisfying the demand.
In the above OLED production line construction, the total investment in new production capacity that has been started exceeds RMB 350 billion. Samsung, LG and BOE have all planned a multi-billion-level project group and become the industry's big three. However, these investments have not basically achieved mass production. The world's truly mass-produced OLED display products, Samsung's mobile phone screen. Other manufacturers have insufficient production capacity. In 2016, Samsung occupied more than 90% of the OLED global market. In summary, the OLED display industry is currently an industrial structure that provides unipolarity (Samsung-based), diversification of construction, and mouse pull-outs. In other words, the actual available capacity is seriously insufficient, and the market demand is unprecedentedly high. The relevant manufacturers have invested heavily in building new factories. This is a state of the eve of a market eruption.
However, the overall situation of the OLED industry is different from that of the OLED color TV industry. Because the OLED projects of the new global construction are basically 6th-generation and 6th-generation lines, the only manufacturer that really owns OLED large-size lines is the LG.
At present, LG has 8.5 generation line capacity such as E3 factory (8 thousand pieces), E4-1 (26,000 pieces), E4-2 (26,000 pieces). Among them, E4-2 is in the stage of gradual release of production capacity, and full production is required by the end of this year or early next year. LG started the Guangzhou OLED 8.5 generation line in the near future. The project is planned to start production in 2019, with a production capacity of 60,000 glass substrates. At the same time, LG plans to build an E4-3 project in 2018, which will also have a scale of 26,000. In addition, LG’s latest news stated that it plans to build 10.5 generation OLED lines in the P10 plant in the future and adopt advanced printing technology.
LG's large-scale OLED panel's capacity planning is very detailed, and it can be said that it is steadily improving. However, it is still relatively small compared to the global color TV industry. Excluding the P10 factory OLED large-size plan, the total production capacity of LG's project will reach the total size of a line of LCD TVs in 2019. According to the current 8.5-generation OLED line, the cutting ratio of 55-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch products, and 80% of the finished products, will provide stable production capacity of 4 million TV sets by 2020, accounting for approximately 2% of global TV sales. %. In recent years, the global market for OLED products in the domestic market accounted for one-quarter of the total, and domestic sales of one million OLED TVs could exceed 100,000 in 2020.
Therefore, OLED TVs, like small and medium-sized panels such as cell phones, have the problem of supplying single polarization. However, the use of small and medium size panels for OLED mobile phones has shown a trend of full flowering. OLED TV panels are still relying on LG's own support - the latter is similar to Samsung's state of OLEDs on small-size products before 2016.
Extensive bottleneck in expanding the production capacity of OLED TV panels The OLED panel used by color TVs is monopolized by LG. This is a “good opportunity†for LG to expand its production capacity and occupy the market’s first-mover status. In this regard, LG itself will not deny. However, to really increase production capacity, LG still has "not enough strength".
On the one hand, LG must face the trend of the rise of small and medium sized OLEDs. In fact, since 2016, more than 70% of LG's OLED investment has been occupied by the 6th generation line. In 2018, entering the Apple mobile phone supply chain is a direct goal. At the same time, on small and medium sized OLED panels, LG is also faced with the technical challenges of flexibility, and it is not a fully-production-capacity duplication task.
The industry believes that it is the explosive growth of OLED's small size that disrupts LG's strategy of leading the layout of OLEDs in large size. Even for industry giants such as LG, maintaining a high level of investment in small and medium size and large size is also a difficult task. The investment in small size has seriously deteriorated LG's investment plan. The core requirements of the LG Guangzhou OLED project lie in the 30% capital that the state-owned enterprises in Guangzhou can afford, and the huge amount of loans that the Chinese syndicates can provide. Or, the LG Guangzhou OLED project landed was attracted by funds.
On the other hand, LG faced a technical battle over large-size OLED products. LG's well-established swather + color filter film products, although capable of copying production technology at any time, must consider the threat of "lower cost printing technology that can support RGB three primary colors." For the OLED display technology of printing technology, the current state is basically “closedâ€.
If this is successful, then it is clear that the large-scale OLED market steaming process route will become a dead end. Large-scale investment in this route is not a wise choice. However, it may be too late to “keep going out†– so LG still needs to increase its large-scale OLED production capacity at a steady pace.
The above two factors not only plagued LG but also plagued the entire display panel industry. For example, BOE chose OLED to invest mainly in the 6th generation line flexible project. Although it has broken through the large-scale OLED engineering problem of steam distillation technology, it is subject to technical uncertainty and is not willing to mass-produce large-scale steaming technology immediately. Similar concerns include Samsung - Samsung even believes that the display ink of the era of print display is not necessarily OLED, but may be QLED or other products.
The technical difficulty is not terrible, and it gradually breaks through; the financial problem is not terrible. Chinese syndicates and state-owned enterprises will support advanced industries; but the uncertainty of the technological route cannot be circumvented - whether large-size OLEDs are steamed or printed. This problem is not solved. Large-size OLEDs can only be LG's own cautious and steady climbing process, and will not enter the explosive new line construction period.
The mainstream of large-size liquid crystals can be maintained until 2025. Compared with large-scale OLED construction, "large-scale LCD" projects are still deeply loved by the industry. In the color TV industry in the next three to five years, the new panel production capacity is basically 70+ LCD products.
At present, Hefei BOE 10.5 generation line has entered the equipment installation phase, this will be the world's first 10.5 generation line; the same glass substrate size Huaxing Optoelectronics 11 generation line, Hon Hai Guangzhou 10.5 generation line has also started construction; BOE recently signed Wuhan 10.5 generation line framework agreement. At the same time, even if it is the only beneficiary of OLED large-size products, LG does not reject the large-size LCD project. Regarding the 10.10 line of the P10 plant project, LG said that it may first produce liquid crystal projects and then shift to printing OLEDs.
For the above projects, even if the adjusted LG P10 plant is not counted, the total investment of the other four projects is as high as 180 billion yuan. And three projects have started construction. These projects will generate huge capacity, equivalent to 34 million 75-inch TVs, or 44 million 65-inch TVs. In the future, LCD TVs may have one-fifth of the market occupied by these new 10.5 generations of production lines.
Relatively more mature technology, larger scale, and support for more manufacturers, this is the biggest difference between large-size LCD production lines and OLED large-size lines. In 2020, the domestic high-end color TV market is likely to be a comparison of 10 million LCDs over 65 inches and 1 million LCDs over 55 inches. Such a gap is considered sufficient to prove the vitality of LCD products.
Of course, when investing in large-scale liquid crystal products on a large scale, there is always a concern: If OLEDs mature rapidly, especially when large-scale printing technologies mature rapidly, where do these large-scale LCD production capacities go? The answer to this question can be divided into three levels to answer: First, the liquid crystal panel and OLED panel manufacturing have the connectivity of the previous process, that is, more than 70% of equipment and technology are basically the same.
Second, even if OLEDs mature rapidly, it will take several years for their capacity building and scale accumulation (generally, the construction of a new technology line will take 28 months or more). That is, OLED and LCD must have a coexistence phase of 6-10 years. This will provide a transition period for the new LCD production capacity.
Third, if you do not build these LCD projects, what can manufacturers do? One of them is to sit back and let the market of large-size LCDs surrender. The second is to build OLED lines, but currently only the steaming technology route can be mass-produced – and the steaming equipment is more expensive than the liquid crystal mid-range process equipment, and even more than the future of the printing display equipment, that is, if you consider the new line construction Some of the equipment may soon be ruthlessly eliminated, resulting in losses, and now the large size of the steamed OLED lines that can be built is at a higher risk than the larger LCD line.
Taking into account the three levels of consideration, the market believes that the construction of large-size liquid crystal lines is the best solution in terms of market demand, technical route, and return on investment. Most panel companies chose the LCD 10.5 line solution, and it was also a "protection" for LG to develop transpiration OLED alone - reducing the latter's competitive risks.
"Dry and fast LCD, steadily advancing OLED" This is the current upstream market strategy of the color TV industry. This strategy is basically decided by the supply side, and the competition pattern of OLED and LCD products in the next ten years. This is the dominant role of liquid crystals until at least 2025. Although this is not good news for OLED-loving consumers, it is a news that is likely to become a fact.
Smart TV/box information can focus on smart TV information network sofa butler (http://), China's influential TV box and smart TV website, providing information, communication, TV boxes, smart TVs, smart TV software, etc. Answering questions.
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