Along with the continuous soaring of panel prices from the beginning of the second half of last year, the price of TVs continued to rise, and terminal consumers held strong sentiments to buy coins. The overall sales of TVs in the domestic TV industry fell into a state of low volume.
According to a research data from Sigmaintell, HomeNet found that in the traditional sales season of the first half of the year, the total sales of “Yuanchun†in the five weeks fell by 11.4% year-on-year, and that of the “51†fell sharply by 17.9% year-on-year in the first three weeks. In the first half of the year, only the "618" three weeks (June 1-21) situation was slightly optimistic: online sales were 2.1 million, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year.
According to Li Wei, chief editor of the power grid, at the time of the first anniversary of the bull market of LCD panels, the direction of panel and color TV prices in the second half of 2017 is different from the relatively consistent bullish view in the industry. There are differences between the three arguments: price increase, stability, and price reduction.
Price increases, said the pot to LGD's output to back
The pessimistic color TV industry personage introduced to HEA, the liquid crystal panel continues to increase the price to say to a large extent by the LGD liquid crystal production line suddenly stops producing the influence.
Recently, LGD's 8.5-generation P8-1 production line in Paju, South Korea, was stopped for maintenance due to a personal safety accident. The suspension will last for two weeks to one month. At present, the cause of the accident has not yet been disclosed to the public. Whether the production line can quickly eliminate potential safety hazards, and whether the hidden danger will exist in other production lines, the stability of full production is still unknown.
However, this person also stated that the effect of suspension of production on global panel supply from a known point of view is short-term and small, if calculated on the basis of the 10,000-generation P8-1 production line with a monthly production capacity of 110,000 mother glass substrates, accounting for approximately the world's total area. With a capacity of 2.5%, it is inferred that this suspension will affect the output of 50,000-60,000 pieces of panel, because the main cutting type is the 49-inch and 55-inch panel that is currently the mainstream of television sales, so the price of color TV terminals continues to rise. Inference is not sensational.
From another perspective, due to the lower TV shipments in the second quarter of the country and the “618†boost, the channel inventory will be reduced to 6.5 weeks, and the shipment momentum of all major brands in the third quarter will increase. Currently, this is an important stage for the panel stocking in the third quarter. The production lines of mainstream panel companies are all in full production. The suspension of LGD production is bound to have a negative impact on the panel supply and demand relationship in the third quarter.
Those in the industry who support the “price increase†theory believe that the panel prices that had risen before have been flattening, but this time LGD's production shutdown will make the overall panel supply more tight, which may cause TV companies to once again feel “suspicion of lifeâ€. The short-term costs surged.
Keep it steady: Each size changes staggered
Representatives of the stable price theory believe that panel prices that have risen since June 2017 have already entered the downward track. According to the latest data released by the market-regulation agency IHS on June 19, the maximum price drop for the 40-inch 1080P Full HD panel and the 43-inch 1080P Full HD panel is US$ 2. In the 4K ultra-high-definition panel, the 49-inch 4K ultra-high-definition panel and the 55-inch 4K ultra-high-definition panel also dropped by 1 US dollar, showing a trend of rising, steady, and falling.
However, there is a rational view in the industry that, for panel prices that have been slowly declining, the suspension of LGD will bring about a certain degree of support for them, but its impact will only remain on some dimensions, and the 8.5 and 10.5 generation lines will each have their own Differences in economic cutting ideas, the size of the various markets are mixed, the market will be adjusted as a whole and bearish digestion, so that the price of color TV will maintain a relatively stable situation in the second half.
As the market's high-intensity demand for large-size flat-panel TVs grows, high-end products such as 65-inch and 75-inch still maintain strong demand. The discontinuation of the LGD production line brought about a certain degree of decline in production capacity for low- and medium-end starting sizes of 49 and 55, but with the supply of BOE Fuqing Plant and Huaxing Optoelectronics T2 at the mid-to-high-size capacity, supply and demand The impact of prices will not last long.
Today, the domestic market for color TVs is sluggish. TV manufacturers are paying more and more attention to overseas markets, and the demand for small-sized products will not shrink rapidly. Although there will be slight fluctuations in the prices of various sizes, the overall situation will still be relatively flat.
Price cuts say that shipping pressures have to be sold more often than negative profits.
The sluggish domestic sales in the first half of the year was a fact that the color TV industry had to admit. According to group intelligence data, the overall BP completion rate in the domestic market of Chinese brands was only 31% in the first half of the year. Compared with the 40% sales of the golden lines in the first half of the year, the pressure of shipments of the brands in the second half of the year was huge. The successful experience of the “618†in the first half of the year will drive its promotion efforts in the second half of the year, such as “Mid-Autumn Festival 11†and “Double 11†promotion festivals.
According to the company's understanding of the power grid, upstream panel makers are also showing signs of nervousness about the current supply and demand situation. For panel makers, the persistent high profits lasting for a long period of time remain stable before the release of LCD panel supply in 2019 Guarantee continuous return.
Panels, brands, and channels are looking forward to the general price and sales of color TVs ushering in the general drop in the second half of the year. Although we cannot expect the average price of the TVs to fall to the lowest level in the same period of last year, if the three parties jointly use profit guarantees to increase domestic sales momentum, they will increase. The downward trend in prices is predictable.
However, Li Wei, chief editor of HomeNet, believes that in the second half of 2017, the activity and proportion of international color TV brands in the domestic market will increase significantly, and the protection of upstream purchase resources of various brands will also vary. In the dynamic market, terminal TV sets In addition to the three speculations of “flat upâ€, there may be other options.
Color TV prices are up or down or they tend to be stable. The industry has its own ideas. However, attracting consumers at a low price is only an expedient measure. The improvement of television technology, the improvement of television quality and the viewing experience can make consumers happy to pay for orders.
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